Whom to pick?

Assuming, as seems likely from all the recent polling, that Barack Obama wins election to the presidency in 10 days' time, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich is going to have a hard choice to make not long thereafter. Pursuant to the Seventeenth Amendment, the Illinois General Assembly (10 ILCS 5/25-8) requires the governor to make a temporary appointment when a vacancy occurs in the office of U.S. Senator from Illinois. The governor's appointee serves until "the next election of representatives in Congress"--which, in Obama's case, would be until the expiration of his current term, which still has two years left to run.

It's not likely to be an easy pick to make. Blagojevich is not well-liked even (perhaps especially) among the leaders of the Illinois Democratic Party. He is currently under investigation at both the state and federal levels for corruption, leaving open the very real possibility that he may not finish his second term in office. As of yesterday, Blagojevich's approval rating stood at 13%--five points less than the Worst. President. Ever., and on a rough par with Congress as a whole.

All of that is important, because it will, I believe, make it far more difficult for the governor to do what is often done in situations like these and appoint a friend or significant contributor to the post. In fact, I think the harder choice for Blagojevich to make is going to be which of his many detractors and political enemies he should exile to Washington for the next two years. I have a few ideas on that front below the fold.

There are a few obvious names that won't even get considered. First is Michael Madigan, the powerful speaker of the Illinois House. Madigan and Blagojevich loathe each other--to the point that Madigan repeatedly refused to attend meetings to discuss possible budget revisions when the governor rejected the budget passed by the General Assembly just before it adjourned for the summer. He didn't see the point (and it's hard to argue with him on this) in sitting around waiting for the governor to offer yet another proposal for his own agenda, without paying any attention to the stated desires of the legislators who actually have the constitutional authority to make budgets into law. Madigan, even if Blagojevich named him, would almost certainly not take the job. His power base is here in Illinois--there's nothing for him in Washington. In the 37 years since he was first elected to the General Assembly in 1971, he's never, to the best of my knowledge, even expressed an interest in running for higher office. Besides, I'd lay odds Madigan wants to make sure he's around for the remainder of Blagojevich's term, if only to make sure he doesn't try to pull another fast one on the state budget, which is one of Madigan's biggest concerns. (And, honestly, so he can dance on Blagojevich's political grave, should he be indicted.)

Another obvious no is Mike Madigan's daughter, Lisa, the state attorney-general. She's young, she's smart, she's sharp as hell, and she'd make a great senator, even on a temporary basis. But as attorney general, it's her office that's responsible for carrying out the state-level investigation of Blagojevich. If he appoints her to fill out the remainder of Obama's term, it's going to look like he's trying to blunt the investigation. So I don't see that one happening, at least not this time. (I'd be surprised, though, if Lisa Madigan didn't throw her name in the hat for the 2010 election, since Blagojevich will either have been indicted by that point or will be likely facing a serious primary challenge as his second term ends in 2010 anyway.)

I don't think Blagojevich will appoint Emil Jones, the retiring president of the Illinois Senate, both because he's getting on in years and also because he's one of Blagojevich's staunchest allies in Illinois Democratic politics. He needs Jones here, not languishing in Washington.

So, whom do I think Blagojevich might actually pick? There are several good candidates, starting with his lieutenant governor, Pat Quinn. Rumor has it that the two don't really get along all that well, and the lieutenant governorship in Illinois has even fewer responsibilities and prerogatives than are constitutionally given to the vice president. Quinn is hugely more popular than Blagojevich, and could easily prove a significant threat in the next gubernatorial primary. Getting him out of the way for a couple of years could dampen that threat considerably.

Another is Alexi Giannoulias, currently the state's treasurer. He's young (32), he's bright, and he's seen as an up-and-comer in the state party. Since taking office, he's substantially revamped the way the state manages its money and made the office considerably more transparent. That's probably put him at odds with Blagojevich, who takes something of a "unitary executive" view of his powers as governor--as witness his attempt unilaterally to expand Illinois' FamilyCare plan. Although Blagojevich is appealing the matter to the Illinois Supreme Court, he's been enjoined from enrolling any more families in the program, which was soundly voted down in the legislature, until the litigation is finally resolved. Having Giannoulias out of the way might give Blagojevich a little more elbow room.

But my money is on Comptroller Dan Hynes. Hynes is also young (40), he's hugely popular (he won re-election to the comptroller's office in 2002 and 2006 by a margin of more than a million votes each time. He spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this year on its first night--and he came in second in the 2004 Democratic senatorial primary to Barack Obama. Hynes has been critical of Blagojevich's spendthrift ways and, as the official charged (15 ILCS 405/2) to "...serve as the chief fiscal control officer of the State of Illinois...," he's an even bigger obstacle to Blagojevich's plans than Giannoulias is.

It will be interesting to see if I'm anywhere in the ballpark on this.

Comments

[Mustang Bobby]

CNN is touting Jesse Jackson, Jr.

Just so you know.

[Michael]

Color me doubtful. I don't think Blagojevich is going to promote anybody out of the House delegation. If he does, there has to be an immediate special election to fill the vacancy--and that costs money the state doesn't have, and will put more work on county officials who will have just completed one of the longest (and most expensive) election cycles in history.