The Speaker doth protest too much, methinks

I want to be clear from the outset that this is a highly speculative post. I can't provide hard evidence for anything I say (or speculate about) herein, but the circumstantial evidence is mounting to Olympian heights. And if I'm reading the lay of the land correctly, we could be in for a seismic shakeup in Republican politics--in Illinois and nationwide--the likes of which have not been seen since 1994.

It is undeniable that Dennis Hastert's name has been appearing--and not in a terribly good light--in media all across Illinois (and the nation, for that matter) in connection with what certainly has all the hallmarks of a sweet little insider deal. It is alleged that Hastert, and some of his Republican buddies, secretly bought up land in Kendall County that just so happens, in a fortuitous coincidence (as Hastert and his spin-doctors would have it), to be less than five miles away from the proposed route of the Prairie Parkway, a new interstate spur that would complete what is currently the outermost ring road around the Chicago metropolitan area. They then, it is further alleged, sold that land at a considerable profit after Hastert got a federal earmark for the project. You can get more information on the matter at the Sunlight Foundation.

All of that is old-ish news, and while it has certainly gotten some traction here in Hastert's district, I can't say as I've noticed any indications of a sea change in opinion about either Hastert or the Republicans because of it. At least not in public.

In private, however, it appears that things might be considerably different. There are persistent reports of people, including Republican state and local party officials, commenting that this is the last straw for Hastert, that it's time for him to step down, and, horror of horrors (at least from the Republicans' perspective), that they're thinking of voting for--or worse, working for Hastert's Democratic opponent, John Laesch.

So much for the grassroots problem. There are further, equally persistent reports that many of Hastert's Washington staffers have begun quietly sending out their resumes. Now, that might be a case of ordinary prudence and nothing more, given that there are no guarantees this side of the Pearly Gates. But as I understand the way professional politics is played, one generally waits until after the election has been lost before polishing up one's resume and sending it around to look for someone who actually needs people to staff his/her office. I have to think that doing so in late June, or a full four months and more before the election, could be an important early warning sign.

I suppose it is within the realm of possibility that Hastert and at least some of his Washington staff are parting amicably from one another's company. I can't imagine that a legislative aide gets paid all that well, and the cost of living in Washington is certainly toward the high end of the scale in the United States. So some of his staffers might just be moving on toward greener pastures, as conservative Republicans are wont to do despite all their pious talk about serving the country, yada, yada, yada.

But along with the reports that Hastert's staffers are job-hunting there are other reports, suggesting that the Turdblossom himself has already engineered a deal by which Hastert will drop out of the election fairly quickly, to be replaced by a candidate of Unca Karl's choosing.

If true, I have to think that would be the end of the Republican Party in Illinois for at least a generation. The state party is already reeling, battered and bruised by internecine strife, in the wake of its disastrous decision to import Alan Keyes in 2004 to run for the Senate against Barack Obama when their initial candidate, Jack Ryan, had to drop out when it became known that he'd repeatedly pressed his then-wife, against her will, to have sex with him in clubs.

Keyes lost that election in a landslide. And while part of that had to do with Obama's undeniable charm and political savvy, I also think that quite a bit more of it had to do with Illinois Republicans' distaste at being dictated to by someone not from around here. I can't help but think that another sacrificial lamb (rabid or not) sent here by the Beltway Boobs is going to get a similar reception.

There are also rumblings that local Republicans are pissed off at Hastert's long history of high-handedness with them. If true, that also does not bode well for the chances of someone handpicked by Hastert's Washington buddies (and therefore, presumably, in debt to them and thus unlikely to be thinking predominantly or primarily about the needs and concerns of the local party).

Let me repeat again that most of what I've just said is speculation--and speculation based on not much in the way of hard evidence. But the pieces fit together very nicely. And Hastert does appear to be running at least a little bit scared, for the first time I can remember since he first took office. He actually put out campaign signs for the primary election this spring--when I can barely remember seeing a Hastert sign even during the general election run-up before. Hastert and Republican Party operatives have begun a quiet swiftboating-by-astroturf campaign, writing letters to the editor of small local newspapers distorting the record and attempting to smear John Laesch, his Democratic opponent.

And John isn't taking it lying down, either. He's fighting back, and working damned hard to push Hastert into an early retirement. He may just get his chance--and sooner than he thinks or even dreamed was possible. If you've got some time or money (or other contributions) to spare, do please consider helping John out: contributions and volunteer commitments are most welcome.

(And for the record, no, I'm not on John's campaign staff. I'm definitely a supporter of his, though, and I'm proud to acknowledge that fact.)

Comments

[Bryan]

Lately Hastert has been bucking the White House on a couple of things, which made me wonder if he wasn't having some problems in his home district and needed to supply some daylight between himself and the Shrubbery.

[Michael]

If that's what he was trying to do, I don't think it's worked terribly well. The only Hastert coverage I've been seeing up here has been devoted to the details of what we're now apparently calling the "Prairie Porkway."

[Steve Bates]

"Prairie Porkway."

Ah... it's like Houston's Grand Porkway, um, Parkway, which is the newest and fortunately incomplete outermost loop (the fourth, by most people's count) around Houston. The Grand Porkway is slated to go right through one of the largest migratory bird flyways/stopovers in the United States, and also through one of the primary lakes supplying Houston's water. But the road contractors love it, and I wouldn't bet against them in Houston. Hmm... maybe if Denny bought up some land nearby...