Musing's musings

Bluffing on a busted flush

Tom Toles got it about right:

Now if only our nearly naked nudnik weren't playing with real people's lives on the line. And understood the rules of poker.

Mirabile visu

Quoth The Times (the real one, not the ersatz versions on this side of the pond):

IRAN’S supreme leader is considering a change of policy on the country’s nuclear programme in an effort to defuse growing tension with the West, according to senior sources in Tehran.

Alarmed by mounting US pressure and United Nations sanctions, officials close to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei favour the appointment of a more moderate team for international negotiations on the supervision of its nuclear facilities.

The move would be a snub to the bellicose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose threats to destroy Israel have left Iran increasingly isolated and facing a serious economic downturn.

Half of me is ready to break into the "Hallelujah" chorus. That is until the other half reminds me that just because one of the few men in the world more wingnutty and hard-line than the Boy Who Would Be King has apparently decided to behave reasonably, that's no guarantee that the Boy Who Would Be King Even If It Takes a Nuclear Götterdämmerung to Keep Him on the Throne will respond in kind.

It's a truly saddening commentary on how low America's fortunes have sunk under the Shrubbery that it is a fundamentalist cleric that came to his senses in this risky game of nuclear chicken, and not the self-styled leader of the free world. I wish I lived in a world where (a) this report proves to be true and (b) there could be no possible doubt that the White House would consider it a positive development and seriously pursue continued negotiations to defuse the situation.

Unfortunately, that perfect world looks nothing like the actual world in which I do live. Here in the reality-based community, we're all in dubiety about just how Bush and his minions will respond. They seem heavily invested in making Iran the next global boogeyman, with which they apparently hope to frighten the American people (and anybody else they want to influence to support them) into the kind of unquestioning obedience demanded by their irrational "unitary executive" theory of constitutional government. The Deciderer has made it abundantly clear that Iran is, both now and forevermore, one of the Baddies of the world--and once you get on Bush's shit list, there doesn't seem to be any way of getting off of it short of dying.

Let's hope (and pray, this Sabbath-tide) this time is the exception that proves the rule.

Боже мой

It would appear that God answers Republican prayers after all. Within a day of watching the Decider's popularity nose-diving to another all-time low, and within hours of having yet another shoe drop (itself not long after a different shoe fell; is it me, or does Foleygate have more shoes than Imelda Marcos?) in the Mark Foley scandals, North Korea claims it's joined the nukular club:

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

"The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, citing defense officials.

I will not claim that Bush asked Kim Jong Il to do the test at this time, and neither will I claim that this is Karl Rove's much-vaunted "October Surprise." But I can't help but notice that the timing is awfully fucking convenient for the Bu$heviki. Usually, whenever the Boy Who Would Be King's approval ratings tank this badly, they up the FearCon level for a few days and scare enough of the waverers back into the "R" column. I think that trick's been played a few too many times and lost its effectiveness, so it would not surprise me if the Shrubbery had gone looking for a new trick. I just can't prove this was that trick.

But whatever the trick was or might have been, we now have a whole new ball game in Weltpolitik. Thanks entirely to the Decider-in-Chief, the one man on the face of the earth who is demonstrably clearly less sane than George W. Bush now also appears to have nuclear weapons at his disposal. Thanks a lot, boys. I feel so much safer now.

I do not think that word means what you think it means, Mr. Preznit

I'm not making this shit up. Really. (I don't have that kind of time.) Quoth AgenceFrance:

The United States said it will make no formal response to a surprise letter sent by Iran's hardline leader, but President George W. Bush vowed to pursue diplomatic efforts to counter Iran's nuclear programme.

Dude, read my lips. Diplomacy means two parties, both of them talking. Preferably to one another, but if need be through a third party. And saying "Nanny, nanny, boo-boo, I can't hear you!" whenever the other side makes an overture doesn't count.

Tell you what, I'll even help you write the reply. Start it off with something like "Dear President Ahmadinejad," and then find something--anything--nice to begin the letter proper. A simple "Thank you for your recent communication" will do. Should the Spirit move you, add something like "It's been a long time since last we heard from you, but we're glad to discover you haven't lost our number."

Note to Shrubya: Diplomacy's cheaper than war

Bryan more or less beat me to the punch, but I'm going to publish my own take anyway. Pretty much the first thought through my head this morning when I heard the Condiliar pooh-pooh-ing the contents of the letter that Iranian President Ahmadinejad sent to Shrubya--the first direct communication between the U.S. and Iranian governments in nearly three decades--was "My, how times change."

Sixty-five years ago (or nearly so), the world was on the brink of another catastrophic outbreak of violence. President Franklin D. Roosevelt took much the same course as did President Ahmadinejad, and addressed a personal message to the Japanese emperor in an attempt to ward off what looked to be the outbreak of war in the Pacific (as in fact happened the day after the message was sent, with what results we all know).

Now, the Chicago Tribune, in reporting on the message, did note that it was "...unusual in the annual of the state department [sic] because the Japanese consider their ruler as a god ...and beyond ordinary channels of communication" ("F.D.R. sends note to Mikado as Japs move toward Thailand," December 6, 1941, page 1). But neither the Tribune nor the New York Times found it at all unusual that one head of state should contact another during a time of crisis between their two countries, and attempt to work out an amicable solution.